The Kentucky Derby 2026 is set to go to post at 6:57 p.m. ET, and horse racing expert Jody Demling is already fading the morning-line favorite, Renegade, who sits at 4-1. Demling points to historical trends and post position challenges as reasons for his skepticism.
Renegade’s odds may look appealing on paper, but history tells a different story. The last time a morning-line favorite won was in 2018, which raises eyebrows. “Renegade has history, in multiple aspects, working against him for Saturday’s race,” Demling noted. With Further Ado and Commandment both sitting at 6-1 and Chief Wallabee at 8-1, the competition is fierce.
Let’s break down some key numbers:
- Renegade: Morning-line favorite at 4-1
- Further Ado and Commandment: Both at 6-1
- Chief Wallabee: Odds of 8-1
- Three longshots — Intrepido, Six Speed, Great White — all tied at 50-1
- The Puma scratched from the race, leaving 19 horses in the field
The stakes are high this year, especially with Danon Bourbon aiming to become the first horse based out of Japan to win the Derby. He recently dominated the Fukuryu Stakes by an impressive 10 lengths. “Of the two Japanese horses, Danon Bourbon has more speed than Wonder Dean, which is why I have him ranked higher,” Demling explained.
Todd Pletcher trains Renegade — a two-time Derby champion — but Irad Ortiz isn’t having much luck himself. Despite over 4,000 career wins, Ortiz is still searching for his first Derby victory after nine attempts. It’s a streak that adds pressure.
Demling has proven his expertise by nailing the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. “Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up,” said one of his followers.
The excitement around this year’s Kentucky Derby continues to build as observers await further insights from experts like Demling. Fans will be eager to see if history will repeat itself or if a new champion will emerge from Churchill Downs this May.